Analysis of the Geopolitical Impacts of the 25-Year Iran–China Cooperation Agreement, with Emphasis on Regional Consequences

Abstract

The 25-year Iran–China Cooperation Agreement is one of the most significant geopolitical accords of the past two decades, formed in a context marked by great-power rivalry, shifts in security patterns in West Asia, transformations in the global energy structure, and the expansion of the Belt and Road Initiative. This agreement not only has the potential to reshape Iran’s geopolitical position but may also alter regional dynamics in areas such as energy security, balance of power, the security order of the Persian Gulf, transit networks, and the relations of influential regional actors. The present study, relying on scientific findings, qualitative analyses, comparative evaluation, and data extracted from contemporary literature, investigates the regional implications of this agreement and seeks to provide a comprehensive picture of its impact on the future of geopolitical interactions. The findings of this study indicate that the agreement creates significant regional consequences through three main pathways: first, enhancing Iran’s geo-economic position within regional transportation and energy networks through its role in the Belt and Road Initiative; second, strengthening Iran’s balancing capacities against U.S. pressure through convergence with China as a rising power; and third, influencing the security dynamics of the Persian Gulf and the competition among regional actors. The analysis further shows that China, through its foreign policy principles of “non-interference” and “balancing strategy,” has simultaneously strengthened its relations with both Iran and Arab states, a posture that carries both positive and negative implications for Iran’s regional standing. On the one hand, it may create opportunities for expanding economic cooperation and energy security; on the other hand, it may impose constraints on deepening security and military cooperation with China. The final analysis asserts that the 25-year cooperation agreement can lead to an improvement in Iran’s regional position only if accompanied by proactive regional strategies, alignment with great-power competition, and the intelligent utilization of geo-economic capacities. Aiming to offer an analytical and future-oriented perspective, this article explores the regional dimensions of the agreement and emphasizes the opportunities, threats, and strategic pathways available to Iran.