Trilateral Cooperation between Iran and Pakistan in Afghanistan: An Analysis of Geopolitical Challenges and Opportunities for Access to Central Asia

Abstract

Access to Central Asian markets, as a strategic economic and geopolitical priority for Iran, requires the opening of reliable transit routes through neighboring countries. In this context, Afghanistan—despite being the shortest and most natural corridor—has become part of a complex trilateral equation due to its internal instability and Pakistan’s pivotal role in its developments. This study aims to assess the feasibility and conditions of Iran–Pakistan cooperation to operationalize Iran’s transit route to Central Asia via Afghanistan. Employing a hybrid analytical framework that combines geopolitical realism (to explain competitive dynamics) and new institutionalism (to account for drivers of cooperation), the article argues that bilateral relations are situated within a field of opposing forces. On the one hand, historical rivalry, ideological divergence, project-based competition (Chabahar versus Gwadar), and interventions by regional actors (India and Saudi Arabia) and extra-regional powers (the United States and China) have created deep structural obstacles. On the other hand, the imperative to address shared security threats (cross-border terrorism) and the attractiveness of substantial economic gains from establishing transit corridors have generated unavoidable points of convergence. The article’s key finding indicates that, despite these forced convergences, the formation of a strategic alliance or a stable, institutionalized cooperation under current conditions is unlikely. Instead, the most plausible scenario is the emergence of “episodic, fragile, and project-based cooperation,” which will be heavily influenced by domestic political fluctuations in both countries and by the stability (or instability) of Taliban governance in Afghanistan. The study further concludes that weaknesses in transit infrastructure—particularly in Afghanistan—constitute a costly structural constraint, and that historical and cultural commonalities can function only as a limited soft platform for confidence-building. Ultimately, the success of any cooperation is contingent upon the intelligent management of rivalries and the transformation of shared threats into pragmatic projects, with an emphasis on a three-tier diplomacy involving Pakistan (for security), the Taliban (for economic stability), and China (for mediation and investment).