Expansion of the Presence of Afghan Nationals and the Security of the Islamic Republic of Iran

Abstract

The expansion of the presence of Afghan nationals in the Islamic Republic of Iran, particularly following the rise of the Taliban to power in 2021, has had extensive implications for the country’s national security. This study was conducted with the aim of examining the effects of this presence on Iran’s political, economic, cultural, and social security. The main research question is how the increasing number of Afghan migrants may affect the country’s security. The subsidiary questions address specific threats in the political and economic spheres, as well as cultural and social challenges. The principal hypothesis posits that the widespread presence of Afghan nationals, accompanied by the rise of extremism and terrorist threats, may lead to security-related problems in Iran. In this article, existing data have been analyzed using theoretical frameworks related to national security and migration. The findings indicate that the growth of the Afghan migrant population in Iran may generate multiple challenges, including pressure on economic resources, increased social tensions, and cultural threats. Furthermore, political threats arising from the potential infiltration of extremist and terrorist groups have been examined as a significant factor. Finally, solutions are proposed for better management of the situation and for reducing security threats. The expansion of the presence of Afghan foreign nationals in the Islamic Republic of Iran following the Taliban’s assumption of power in 2021 suggests that this presence may significantly affect political, economic, social, and cultural security, and—alongside the intensification of extremism, the spread of radical tendencies, the strengthening of extremist movements, and terrorist threats—may lead to security challenges in the Islamic Republic of Iran. The increase in the Afghan migrant population in Iran may result in numerous challenges, including pressure on economic resources, heightened social tensions, and cultural threats. The four drivers—political, economic, cultural, and social—play the most significant role in shaping the political-security diplomacy between the two countries.