The Asianization of the Foreign Policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran: A Scenario of the Opportunities and Threats of the Eastward Pivot

Abstract

The concept of Asianization in the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran can be analyzed as an alternative strategy for reducing dependence on Western-centric structures amid transformations in the international order and intensifying geopolitical competition. The dissertation on which this study draws emphasizes that this approach seeks to establish “a new structure and a new order without the participation of the West and the United States” by utilizing Asia’s economic, political, and security capacities. Within this framework, Iranian foreign policy seeks, on the one hand, to expand its strategic room for maneuver by strengthening relations with East Asia and other Asian actors and, on the other hand, to balance against Western pressure, sanctions, and the security alliances maintained by certain Asian states with the United States. Drawing on Peter Schwartz’s eight-step scenario-planning model, this study examines plausible scenarios concerning the effects of Asianization on the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The findings indicate that this approach simultaneously presents opportunities, including access to extensive economic markets and the enhancement of Iran’s regional role, as well as threats, such as the dependence of certain Asian powers on the West and their alignment with anti-Iranian security arrangements. Accordingly, the central question of this article is what function Asianization serves in the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in confronting Western and U.S. hegemony and how it may contribute to the formation of a new East-oriented discourse.