Examining Key Regional Drivers in the Fragility of the Somali State

Abstract

The concern about the spillover effects of state failure is significant in the international arena. The primary reason why the world must be worried about state collapse lies in its contagious nature. Similar concerns have been raised by international organizations such as the World Bank, by states including the United Kingdom and the United States, and by private foundations such as the Fund for Peace and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, both in academic circles and policymaking arenas. These concerns largely stem from the potentially adverse international consequences of the collapse of weak states. This debate has turned into an open discourse suggesting that the collapse of such countries may undermine the security and stability of states in their region. In this regard, Somalia has been experiencing severe tensions and state fragility since the collapse of its central government in the early 1990s. Multiple factors contribute to the emergence of this tension and conflict at various levels. The purpose of this article is to examine the role of regional factors in the fragility of the Somali state. To achieve this goal, a descriptive–analytical method, library resources, and the Wizard software were used. The findings indicate that the key regional drivers in Somalia’s state fragility include security conflicts, economic conflicts, the complexity of tribal relations, territorial disputes, and disputes over shared border resources. According to the results generated by the Wizard software, out of 13 possible scenarios, 10 are critical, 3 are semi-critical, 1 is static, 1 is semi-favorable, and 1 is favorable. Therefore, the conditions in Somalia—particularly regarding its regional environment and relations with neighboring countries such as Ethiopia and Kenya—have been fragile, exerting negative effects on the state. Accordingly, strategies should be developed based on the study’s findings to utilize the existing conditions in a way that improves the situation.